Sharpening Your Tools in the Face of Uncertainty

I was recently having dinner with my wife at a high-end ramen restaurant, and it struck me how much my life had changed. Back in college, I, like many others, lived off of $5/1 packets of ramen. While I’ve since learned that I need to live off more than sodium and starch, the lesson that night came when I inquired about the eating utensils at the restaurant.

For the record, I know how to use chopsticks. What I’ve never understood, though, was the function of the deep, Chinese-style spoon that they give you (I’d later learn that it’s called a renge). Determined to finally have an answer to one of life’s eternal questions, I asked the waiter if he could explain how I was meant to use this unfamiliar tool.

After a quick lesson and demonstration, for which my wife and I were extremely grateful, we felt confident using our respective renges. It definitely enhanced the meal, and it was more enjoyable knowing that we were eating the ramen as intended, with effective but non-offensive slurping. In other words, we felt equipped with the right tools for the job.

And so it goes in business — and life — today. Just like you wouldn’t try to eat ramen with a fork, you can’t navigate the increasingly chaotic world of politics, technology, and business with outdated or inadequate tools. 

As columnists, people like me love to take a few minutes at the beginning or end of the year and share our forecasts on what’s coming up in the new year. As I do this, I’m reflecting on where we are right now. As I write, France’s elected officials have chosen to dissolve the current government, where the two extremes came together to oust the middle.

To me, this echoes the chaos that we saw in the U.S. House of Representatives when Kevin McCarthy was ousted without a clear path forward. In the next four years, I think we’re likely to see a lot of that kind of sudden, abrupt upheaval in the political world — disruption is not a byproduct or a possibility, but the clear, stated intent of the new power in Washington.

We can all hope that whatever new solutions get developed will work, but as we see similar movements gaining ground in Germany, a likely shift in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and big changes in the Middle East power structure. One could call this a “rapidly changing landscape.”

This isn’t just political, either. New technologies, specifically AI, are having far-reaching consequences on financial markets, the workplace, and traditional jobs. What jobs will be lost in this process? What industries are going to be destroyed by these changes, and which ones will harness them to achieve new success?

“Many,” is my best answer. If you’re a business leader, this period of disruption probably makes it feel like you can’t catch your breath. Much like when a tree falls in a forest and knocks over another, every move in the political, technological, or economic world seems to have a ripple effect. The connections between politics, business, and technology are tighter than ever, and a mistake in one area can create a cascade of challenges elsewhere. As we consider the next few years of business and world markets, the only certainty seems to be uncertainty.

But this is where the lesson from my ramen dinner comes in. When there is mass uncertainty and a whole lot of the unknown barreling toward you, your best defense is having the right tool. And as a business leader in uncertain times, your best tool is information. In the face of precarity, your ability to absorb, process, and act on information will define your success (or lack thereof).

Unfortunately, this confluence of disruptors is also happening at the same time that we’re seeing a stark decrease in the number of reliable, omnibus sources of information. Traditional media has by and large bifurcated along partisan lines, and this leaves all of us in the unenviable position of filtering out the noise while accessing the information that we critically need to make informed choices.

So what can you do about it?

Start building up your information network now. Include some classic traditional media, but don’t limit yourself. Find thinkers or bloggers or even TikTokers (while the platform is still around) who present up-to-date information on subject areas that matter to you and your business.

To be clear, I’m not advocating for taking everything you hear on TikTok as fact. You need someone (ideally a few someones) who does their research and analyzes credible sources to give you the information that you need to know. Remember, information is a tool, and in the coming years you’ll want the sharpest tool you can get your hands on.

So, as we enter 2025, yes, we’re looking at uncertain times. But uncertainty doesn’t have to be paralyzing. Take some time to look critically at your information sources and ensure that you’ve got a healthy, regular diet of information that’s enriching and will keep you prepared in an exceptionally chaotic environment. While the future is here, it is unevenly distributed. You want in on it first. The most effective tool? Information.